Fundamental analysis GBPUSD, EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, Brent, WTI for 01.10.2021
The U.S. dollar remains a safe haven asset in the long and medium-term. The U.S. stock market fell heavily and the Fed announced a specific timeline for QE rollback. The growth of initial jobless claims in the U.S. by 362 thousand caused investors to reduce the volume of long USD positions in the market, as the regulator is aiming for full employment for a monetary policy tightening in 2022. At the same time, the hawkish plans of the U.S. regulator provided the currency with solid support. More information on the U.S. government debt will come out over the weekend, which could lead to a significant price gap in early trading next week.
The EUR/USD pair is moving in an uptrend correction. The consumer price index showed a positive trend in September, but the slowdown in business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany, in the context of the energy crisis, carries risks for the single European currency.
The British pound is in a difficult situation. Despite the strong GDP report for the second quarter, high inflation and weakening labor market have created a difficult situation for the British economy. GBP/USD is recovering on Friday, but the pound needs strong employment statistics for further recovery. On Tuesday the market participants will follow the release of UK business activity data.
The volume of investments in currencies with a high beta coefficient on the market has increased. AUD/USD and NZD/USD are the leaders among the major currencies on Friday. Monetary policy meetings of the central banks of Australia and New Zealand will be held next week. USD/CAD got additional support today due to the GDP data release reflecting an acceleration of recovery in July.
Brent and WTI crude oil prices are holding at a high level. Growth in the hydrocarbons market was constrained this week by an increase in US inventories of the main petroleum products and the recovery of oil infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico.
The XAU/USD has consolidated above the psychological level of 1750, but a break-up of 1780 is required to consolidate the uptrend. Fundamentally, the metals market has high upside potential as a safe-haven asset.