General analysis Brent for 15.10.2021
Current Dynamics
This week the price of Brent has increased by more than 2%. In October the oil price went up by 13% against the background of a sharp rise in coal and natural gas prices, which caused a mass shift to petroleum products. The market ignored the report of the U.S. Department of Energy, which reflected the growth of crude stocks by 6.09 million barrels. At the same time, gasoline inventories declined by nearly 2 million barrels over the week, distillers by 24 k barrels, and refinery utilization in the US fell by 2.9%.
According to a Bank of America report, the market will continue to face a supply shortfall of 1 million BPD in the coming months. The International Energy Agency also predicts an increase in demand for a year and a half. At the same time, the analysts of Goldman Sachs think that by the end of 2021 the price of Brent will reach $90 per barrel.
Macroeconomic statistics on retail sales are expected to be released at 14:30 (GMT +2) today. It is worth noting that the published data cover only September when the energy crisis was just taking shape. At the same time, the decline of more than 0.2% will weaken the dollar, considering the high price pressure, intensified by high energy prices.
Support and resistance levels
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is strengthening along with the upper Bollinger Band. The indicator is pointing upwards and the price range is widening, which indicates that the current trend is continuing. MACD histogram is holding a strong buy signal. Stochastic has entered the overbought area, a strong sell signal is expected within 1-3 days.
Support levels: 79.10, 80.80, 82.25, 83.29.
Resistance levels: 84.40, 85.50, 86.20, 86.85.
Trading scenarios
Long positions can be opened at the current price with a target of 85.70 and a stop loss at 83.50. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
Short positions should be opened below the level of 83.50 with a target of 82.20 and a stop-loss at the level of 84.75. Implementation period: 1-2 days.