Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair consolidated at the level of 1.07160.
Significant economic events in Europe and the US remain an important factor for the currency pair. The German economy is under scrutiny and the upcoming industrial production data for July determines the market sentiment. The figure showed a decline of 0.8% against the expected 0.5%. Although manufacturing accounts for only one-fifth of the German economy, data from the sector continues to weigh on EUR/USD due to the deteriorating macroeconomic situation. A contraction in manufacturing could lead to job losses, lower consumption and demand-driven inflation. In addition, another point of interest will be the Eurozone GDP statistics for the second quarter. Growth for the year is forecast to be 0.6%, up from 1.1% in the previous quarter. Weaker results could raise fears of a recession in the eurozone. Given the gloomy economic outlook, the ECB may face less pressure to raise interest rates. Added to this, German industrial orders data and disappointing retail sales in the eurozone also cast doubt on the ECB's hawkish stance. 
In the US, the main focus will be on jobless claims. Against the backdrop of stronger than expected non-manufacturing PMIs, a continued rise in jobless claims could reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. Wage growth, supported by a tight labor market, could mitigate the impact of a Fed rate hike by boosting consumption and demand-driven inflation. 
In addition, geopolitical tensions, including U.S.-China trade relations and concerns about Taiwan, as well as concerns about slowing economic growth in other major global economies, have increased the appeal of the U.S. dollar as a safe haven. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 index futures are under pressure while the US dollar index remains strong, meaning the market is tilting in favor of the dollar against the euro.
While key ECB members remain silent, market participants are closely watching the US data to understand the future direction of the EUR/USD pair. FOMC members Harker, Bowman and Fed Vice Chairman Williams are scheduled to speak on the day. Any hawkish sentiment could put additional pressure on the EUR/USD pair. The current situation indicates different economic trajectories in the Eurozone and the US. Improving economic indicators in the US could lead to a more pronounced monetary policy divergence, which would favor the dollar. 
Technical analysis and scenarios:

Given that the current price is at 1.07160, it is trading near the lower Bollinger Band at 1.06920 and also near the first support level at 1.06700. The Stochastic indicator is relatively neutral but slightly leaning towards oversold, with a value of 42.8682. The MACD value, slightly above the signal value, indicates the possibility of a reversal of the downtrend seen recently. In the alternative scenario, we take a bearish view, expecting a continuation of the downtrend against the backdrop of downward Bollinger Bands and flat price in the lower range of the indicator. The objective here is to capitalize on a possible continuation of the downtrend with an eye on the next support level at 1.06200.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1.08090.
Take Profit: 1.08700.
Stop Loss: 1.07870. 
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1.06700.
Take profit: 1.06200.
Stop loss: 1.07000.