Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD

After modest gains on Friday, EUR/USD declined for the week to 1.06963 and is recovering, trading at 1.07340. 
The pair is fluctuating amid increased focus on economic data in the US and Eurozone. Italian industrial production data for August is attracting attention, especially in light of the recent disappointing data from Germany. Although Italy's manufacturing sector accounts for less than 15% of the economy, EUR/USD could be sensitive to the data. A downturn in the manufacturing sector combined with the current slowdown in service sector activity could heighten economic concerns in the Eurozone. 
On the other side of the Atlantic, attention is focused on the inflation expectations of US consumers, the US CPI report will be released on Wednesday. The consumer inflation gauge is expected to fall from 3.5% to 3.4%, contrasting with the expected increase in the annualized US inflation rate from 3.2% to 3.6% in August. After the FOMC break, investors should analyze these numbers on their own to determine the Fed's future policy actions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed optimism about the U.S.'s ability to manage inflation without serious consequences for the labor market, noting the absence of a significant wave of layoffs. At the same time, market sentiment appears to be tilted toward maintaining interest rates amid favorable U.S. economic data last week. With a 93% probability of interest rates remaining unchanged in September and a 43.5% chance of a rate hike in November, the US dollar is likely to strengthen. Fed officials, including Governors Christopher Waller and Austan Goolsbee and FRB Boston President Susan Collins, shared their views, emphasizing that they are data-driven and intend to follow a balanced path, balancing equally in managing inflation and not causing an economic slowdown. 
ECB monetary policy and the upcoming August US Consumer Price Index, published on Thursday, promise to provide clearer guidance for the EUR/USD trajectory. In short, both regions face economic challenges and political decisions that will have an impact on the EUR/USD pair. Investors and traders should keep a close eye on upcoming data releases and policy signals from central banks.
Technical Analysis and Scenarios:

Given the Stochastic value of 64.4231, which is above the signal line of 43.3150, there is bullish momentum in the short term. The MACD value which is above the signal line, although both indicators are in negative territory, reinforces the potential for an upward move. Price is currently in the upper range of the Bollinger Bands, indicating potential upward pressure. 
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level : 1.08090.
Take Profit: 1.08700.
Stop Loss: 1.07870. 
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1.06700.
Take profit: 1.06200.
Stop loss: 1.07000.