Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD

EUR/USD fell to a low of 1.06316 during the week and is in correction, trading at 1.06670. This optimism can be attributed to the disappointing US consumer confidence data released recently. 
The activity of central banks on both sides of the Atlantic always attracts traders' attention. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points in its latest decision, hinting at the end of a period of monetary tightening. However, inflation remains in focus, making the ECB's rhetoric a crucial factor in determining the institution's future direction. ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed a firm view on interest rates. She emphasized that the council is not yet considering further rate cuts. Rather, the aim is to maintain the current high rates, which indicates the ECB's willingness to raise them if necessary, reflecting a policy of vigilance and adaptability. Senior ECB officials Luis de Guindos and Fabio Panetta will give their comments shortly. 
The ECB's views on interest rates are evolving in line with those of the US Federal Reserve. Unlike the Eurozone, which has proposed to stop raising interest rates, the US has proposed a different scenario. A combination of factors, including a strengthening labor market, rising wages and high levels of consumption explain the continued rise in US interest rates.  
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index recorded a weekly gain at 105.20. The yield on 10-year U.S. bonds fell to 4.32%. Recent data on the U.S. economy, including a better-than-expected consumer price index, as well as positive results on retail sales and jobless claims, indicate favorable economic sentiment in the United States. These strong indicators increase the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will consider another interest rate hike before the end of 2023. 
On Tuesday, the Eurozone's harmonized consumer price index for August will be released, followed by the preliminary PMI for September on Friday. The FOMC interest rate decision and the corresponding economic forecasts are expected to be the key factors determining the further trajectory of the EUR/USD pair. Market observers are waiting for these publications to make an informed decision on EUR/USD. 
Technical analysis and scenarios:

Price is currently rising in the lower range of the indicator, indicating potential upward momentum. The bands are narrowing, indicating a decrease in volatility. With the middle band at 1/06950 and price at 1/06720, there is room for a small upward move. The stochastic oscillator with a value of 58.5227 and a signal of 57.9658 indicates that the pair is neither in overbought nor oversold territory. This gives a neutral signal. The MACD line is above the signal line, albeit marginally, indicating a weak bullish momentum. The values are quite close to zero, signaling the absence of a strong trend direction. Given the indicators and the current price position, the pair may see a small upward movement in the short term, but the narrowing of the Bollinger Bands suggests that a sharp price movement is unlikely in the near term.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1.07120.
Take Profit: 1.07630.
Stop loss: 1.06850. 
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1.06200.
Take profit: 1.05700.
Stop loss: 1.06400.