Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

Market participants have adopted a cautious stance ahead of the upcoming US non-farm payrolls report. The precious metal is below the 2000.00 mark, with spot prices stable at 1987.00 per ounce and futures prices reflecting this calm at 1994.00.
Financial momentum was muted as the U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, which weakened the dollar and lowered Treasury yields. This pause in monetary tightening came amid indicators of lower inflation and a less active labor market, signaling that the Fed may pause in aggressive interest rate hikes as labor costs decline. Jobless claims unexpectedly fell and jobless claims rose. 
Investor caution is tinged with optimism: there is an 80% chance that the Fed will pause interest rate adjustments in December. However, comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell cast a shadow over what was happening as he emphasized that the fight against inflation continues, while not ruling out the possibility of further interest rate hikes. 
As the market turned to the Non-Farm Payrolls data, which was forecasted to show a 180,000 increase in jobs, experts agreed that a lower than expected report could lead to further output cuts and a rise in gold prices, which could push them above the 2000.00 barrier. Gold has now traded slightly higher for two consecutive sessions but without a strong uptrend. The stock market boom has reduced the appeal of the traditional safe haven, keeping it below key psychological levels in early European trading. The investment community is playing a waiting game, watching employment data for signs that the latest round of Fed policy tightening may correct the trajectory of the XAU/USD pair. 
Meanwhile, speculation that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle and may abandon rate cuts by mid-2024 is weighing on Treasury yields, dragging down the dollar and supporting gold. Additional factors such as tensions in the Middle East and the looming specter of recession in China have complicated the gold story, although the lack of buying warrants caution for bulls.
Technical Analysis and Scenarios:

The technical outlook for the XAU/USD pair is leaning towards a bearish trend in the short term. The Alligator indicator indicates that there is no trend as it is "sleeping", meaning the moving averages are intertwined with each other and show a flat market. This condition often indicates consolidation or lack of direction, and traders may want to wait for a clearer signal before taking a position. However, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) indicate negative momentum as they are in the red zone with bars close to zero. This is interpreted as a bearish signal, potentially confirming a downtrend or a pause in bullish momentum. Given these indicators, the main scenario is that gold may continue to experience downward pressure in the coming days.
Main scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level : 1980.00.
Take Profit : 1975.00.
Stop loss: 1982.50.
  
Alternative scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1995.00.
Take Profit: 2000.00.
Stop loss: 1990.00.