USD/JPY, Technical Analysis – H4

The pair is approaching a decisive moment. The triangular consolidation range is nearly filled (though limited room for further range trading still remains), setting the stage for a “spring release” and an impulsive breakout from the triangle in the near term. The key control levels are 161.900 and 162.200. A decisive breakout above or below one of these levels should determine the market’s next directional move.

Key Levels:

□ 161.900

□ 162.200

Primary Scenario:

Consolidation within the 161.900–162.200 range.

Alternative Scenario:

Breakout of the 161.900–162.200 range followed by a strong impulse in the direction of the breakout.

Analyst Commentary:

The probability of a retest after the breakout is very high. Therefore, there is no need to rush into positions.