Fundamental analysis GBPUSD, EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, Brent, WTI for 16.12.2021
16.12.2021 17:18
MInggu
Fundamental
The Fed held a meeting yesterday, which passed without surprises. The regulator made it clear that it intends to combat high price pressures. The Fed plans to accelerate the rollback of QE from $30 billion to $60 billion monthly. In addition, almost most of the Open Market Committee members were in favor of three rounds of interest rate hikes in 2022. Overall, the market reaction was illogical. Instead of the dollar rising substantially and the stock market falling, the U.S. currency fell in value and the price of stocks rose. Of course, a modest increase in U.S. retail sales had a negative impact on the USD, but it is obviously not enough for such a strange market reaction to the aggressive policy of the Fed. At the same time, supply disruptions, supply shortages and rising prices will definitely continue to weigh on demand.
EUR/USD strengthened today after the ECB meeting. Despite the uncertainty caused by the pandemic the ECB is expecting the economy to grow by 4.2% in 2022 and 2.9% in 2023. Finally, the regulator said it allows a gradual reduction in asset purchases (APP) in the first half of next year to combat high price pressures. However, in the medium term the central bank will keep the current stimulus measures, with the ECB plans to reduce the volume of QE by half by October 2022. Also note that the Governing Council plans to reduce the volume of emergency asset purchase program (PEPP) at the end of March 2022.
The British pound strengthened on Thursday after a meeting of the National Bank of England. The regulator raised the rate by 15 basis points to prevent stagflation in the economy. U.K. inflation hit a decade high of 5.1% and with social distance measures tightening, the British regulator went for aggressive measures to keep consumer spending from falling. GBP/USD is testing the strong resistance at 1.1350, a break-up of which will take the pair further into the 1.3410-1.3450 range.
AUD/USD, NZD/USD are rising on Wednesday and Thursday. The New Zealand dollar strengthened on the back of a lower GDP deficit in the third quarter. The AUD received support after the publication of strong labor market statistics. Also, a slowdown in U.S. retail sales in November as well as lower manufacturing activity in December were the drivers for currencies with high beta coefficient, including the USD/CAD pair.
Brent and WTI rose on Wednesday thanks to record fuel demand in the U.S. In addition, a weekly EIA report showed a 4.6 million-barrel decline in U.S. inventories. Also, the Fed's aggressive policy has kept investors' appetite for risk in anticipation of further economic growth, which contributes to an increase in demand for oil.
XAU/USD posted its biggest intraday gain in December. The weakness of the dollar contributes to the rebound in the metals market. At the same time, investors are waiting for a break of resistance at 1800.00 to confirm that they should buy gold.
EUR/USD strengthened today after the ECB meeting. Despite the uncertainty caused by the pandemic the ECB is expecting the economy to grow by 4.2% in 2022 and 2.9% in 2023. Finally, the regulator said it allows a gradual reduction in asset purchases (APP) in the first half of next year to combat high price pressures. However, in the medium term the central bank will keep the current stimulus measures, with the ECB plans to reduce the volume of QE by half by October 2022. Also note that the Governing Council plans to reduce the volume of emergency asset purchase program (PEPP) at the end of March 2022.
The British pound strengthened on Thursday after a meeting of the National Bank of England. The regulator raised the rate by 15 basis points to prevent stagflation in the economy. U.K. inflation hit a decade high of 5.1% and with social distance measures tightening, the British regulator went for aggressive measures to keep consumer spending from falling. GBP/USD is testing the strong resistance at 1.1350, a break-up of which will take the pair further into the 1.3410-1.3450 range.
AUD/USD, NZD/USD are rising on Wednesday and Thursday. The New Zealand dollar strengthened on the back of a lower GDP deficit in the third quarter. The AUD received support after the publication of strong labor market statistics. Also, a slowdown in U.S. retail sales in November as well as lower manufacturing activity in December were the drivers for currencies with high beta coefficient, including the USD/CAD pair.
Brent and WTI rose on Wednesday thanks to record fuel demand in the U.S. In addition, a weekly EIA report showed a 4.6 million-barrel decline in U.S. inventories. Also, the Fed's aggressive policy has kept investors' appetite for risk in anticipation of further economic growth, which contributes to an increase in demand for oil.
XAU/USD posted its biggest intraday gain in December. The weakness of the dollar contributes to the rebound in the metals market. At the same time, investors are waiting for a break of resistance at 1800.00 to confirm that they should buy gold.