Fundamental Analysis GBPUSD

A brief review of macroeconomic news for the U.K. and U.S:

UK: The U.K. continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, which is positive for the pound. The country's GDP grew by 2.1% in March, exceeding analysts' forecasts. However, despite this, the U.K. economy is still 5.9% below pre-pandemic levels.

U.S.: There is a mixed economic picture in the U.S. On the one hand the economy is continuing to recover, on the other hand inflation continues to rise, causing concerns among investors. U.S. inflation reached 4.2% in April, the highest level in 12 years.

The impact of macroeconomic statistics:

UK: Nationwide Home Price Index showed a decline of 0.1% m/m, better than forecast, but worse than the previous value. The annual index also showed a decline of 3.4%, which may keep pressure on the pound. Manufacturing PMI was below expectations, which will also negatively affect the pound.

U.S.: A number of important economic data is expected today including ADP non-farm payrolls, initial jobless claims, non-farm productivity and labor costs. This data could have a significant impact on the dollar's momentum.

Technical Analysis and Scenarios:

Basic Scenario:

Based on Stochastic Oscillator, Bollinger Bands and MACD data, the GBP/USD currency pair may continue its upward movement. However, given the current macroeconomic news and upcoming US data, fluctuations are possible.

Buying can be considered when the resistance level of 1.24500 is breached with a target at the next resistance level of 1.24725. Stop loss can be set at the support level of 1.23860.

Alternative scenario:

If the currency pair fails to overcome the resistance level of 1.24500, a decline to the support level of 1.23860 or even to 1.23615 is possible. In this case, selling can be considered if the support level of 1.23860 is broken through, with a target at the next support level of 1.23615. Stop loss can be set at the resistance level of 1.24500.