GBPUSD Fundamental Analysis

A brief overview of economic developments:

United Kingdom:

Leading economists predict that the U.K. economy could grow by 7.2% in 2023, the fastest growth rate since 1941. This could strengthen the pound's position in the international market.

The Bank of England has left the rate unchanged, but has signaled that it may increase it in the near future if inflation continues to rise. This could also put pressure on the pound.

US:

The U.S. Federal Reserve confirmed that it will begin to scale back its bond-buying program, which could strengthen the dollar.

However, US job growth has slowed down, which could contribute to the dollar's weakness.

Macroeconomic Statistics Impact:

UK:

The May Halifax home price index reading remained neutral, as it did in April. At the same time a 1% year-on-year decline put short-term pressure on the pound.

The mortgage rate may also have an impact on the pound. If it is higher than the previous value, it might strengthen the pound, and vice versa.

US:

The volume of exports and imports as well as the trade balance may have an impact on the dollar. If better than expected, it may strengthen the dollar, and vice versa.

Crude oil inventories and Cushing's surplus inventory data could also have a moderate impact on the dollar. An increase in inventories could put pressure on the dollar as it could indicate a lower demand for oil.

Technical Analysis and Scenarios:

Stochastic Oscillator: The value of 54.3202 indicates that the GBP/USD currency pair is in a neutral zone, not entering into an overbought or oversold zone.

Bollinger Bands: The price is in the lower band range, which might indicate for a possible decline. However, a wide band range indicates high volatility.

MACD: The MACD value is below the signal line, which may indicate a possible decline in price.

Key Levels:

Support levels: 1.22995, 1.23210, 1.23600, 1.23950

Resistance levels: 1.24390, 1.24860, 1.25200, 1.25580.

Main scenario: The currency pair GBP/USD may continue to decline to the support level 1.23210, and then to 1.22995. If the price breaks this level, the next support level will be 1.23600. Take profit should be set at 1.22995 and stop loss at 1.24390.

Alternative scenario: If the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.24390, it might indicate the strengthening of the pound and a possible rise to the next resistance level of 1.24860. In that case, take profit should be set at 1.24860 and stop loss at 1.23950.