Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD

EUR/USD was under downward pressure, trading at 1.07870. Data, primarily German trade data for July, showed weak demand. The confirmation of falling demand was reflected in the August manufacturing PMI survey, which showed weak exports and a possible decline in imports. 
Financial conditions were further clouded by expectations regarding the macroeconomic situation in Germany. Germany's trade balance declined from EUR 18.8 billion to EUR 15.9 against expectations of EUR 18 billion, which could legitimately pose problems for euro investors. However, the introduction of measures by the Chinese government to strengthen the real estate market could have an impact on the investment environment. 
Central bank discourse continues to have an impact. Prominent ECB figures including President Lagarde and Chief Economist Philip Lane will speak. Their insights could influence EUR/USD positions, especially when forecasting a low inflation scenario. In the US, the Fed's stance changed after the release of the employment report. Market data shows that expectations of a Fed rate hike have decreased: the probability of a rate hike in September is currently only 7%. To add to this, recent statements from ECB policymakers indicate a cautious approach to future rate hikes. Bunsch believes that the ECB may have to suspend its tightening policy at some point.
US economic data shows a mixed picture. Non-farm payrolls totaled 187k in August, beating expectations of 170k, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%. However, average monthly hourly earnings rose 0.2%, slightly below expectations. The manufacturing PMI also beat expectations to 47.6. Market consensus now expects the Federal Reserve to end its tightening cycle, with some predicting no rate hike at the next meeting in September. 
With US markets closed due to the Labor Day holiday, attention will turn to comments from key figures such as ECB President Lagarde and German Federal Bank President Joachim Nagel. The direction of the EUR/USD pair is likely to depend on the insights and recommendations of these financial leaders.
Technical analysis and scenarios:

Price is trading in a lower range near the lower band, indicating bearish sentiment. The bands are widening, indicating increased volatility. The middle band, which can act as a dynamic support or resistance level, is at 1.08545, while the upper and lower bands are at 1.09575 and 1.07525 respectively.  The stochastic oscillator shows a value of 12.2696 with a signal line at 7.6903. This suggests that the pair is currently oversold, which can often indicate an upcoming bullish reversal. The MACD value of -0.001727 is below its signal line (-0.000475), indicating bearish momentum. Given the bearish readings of the Bollinger Bands and MACD, as well as the current oversold condition:
Main Scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1.07640.
Take Profit: 1.07200.
Stop Loss: 1.07870. 
Alternative scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1.08090.
Take Profit: 1.08700.
Stop loss: 1.07870.