Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

The gold price declined during the Asian session in response to the release of the Caixin services sector business activity index (PMI) data and corrected to trade at 1936.50.
Gold prices, represented in the XAU/USD pairing, could be volatile influenced by a combination of factors related to the US economy and global sentiment. The resilience of the US dollar, which reached its highest level since early June, has pressured gold prices, limiting upside potential for global investors. The dollar was bolstered by strong US non-farm payrolls data, a positive correction to the US economic growth forecast from Moody's and hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed Chairwoman Loretta J. Mester. 
On the other hand, the market's perception of the US Fed's interest rate decisions introduces an element of uncertainty. Current data on the US labor market paint a mixed picture. On the contrary, job growth accelerated in August. At the same time, the unemployment rate slightly increased and amounted to 3.8%. Wages are also growing slowly. These mixed signals appear to have increased market sentiment that the Federal Reserve may delay an immediate rate hike. The big question now is the timing and magnitude of future interest rate adjustments. If the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decides not to cut interest rates, the attractiveness of alternative asset yields could increase, which would affect the attractiveness of gold. 
External factors are also playing a role. Concerns remain about the sustainability of China's economic recovery, but there are positives such as the Chinese government's aggressive stimulus policies and news from real estate companies.
Traders are cautiously optimistic now as they regroup after the long weekend in the US. They are also keeping an eye on upcoming US statistics and Federal Reserve statements to further clarify the direction of the XAU/USD pair. The gold market is sandwiched between a strong US dollar and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, indicating potential volatility in the coming days.
  
Technical analysis and scenarios:

The Alligator indicator suggests that the market is flat as its moving averages are intertwined, signaling that there is no clear trend. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are in the red zone, near the zero level, indicating strong sell signals. Given the current indicators, the main scenario is leaning towards bearish.
Main scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level : 1931.00.
Take Profit: 1922.00.
Stop Loss: 1936.00.
 
Alternative scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1950.00.
Take Profit: 1960.00.
Stop loss: 1945.00.