Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

The gold price is recovering from its decline and is trading at 1917.70. 
Gold prices rose noticeably due to the strengthening of the yuan, helped by more favorable than expected economic data from China. China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data that beat market forecasts, including a 4.6% year-on-year increase in Chinese retail sales, which exceeded forecasts of 3.0%. In addition, China's industrial production rose 4.5% in August, up from 3.7% in July. 
Although the RMB exchange rate fell due to the decision of the People's Bank of China to lower the mandatory reserve requirement ratios, positive data on industrial production and retail sales in China caused the RMB to appreciate against the dollar to its highest level in the last two weeks. This positivity was reinforced by the decision to lower the required reserve ratio (RRR) by 25 basis points. 
At the same time, the US economic landscape presents a clear picture. Recent data suggest rising producer prices and retail sales, which could be impacted by higher gasoline prices. In addition, initial jobless claims for the week ending September 8 showed improvement, with new claims totaling just 220,000. The core producer price index matched forecasts for a 2.2% increase in August, although it was lower than the previous month. Retail sales also beat expectations, rising 0.6% versus the 0.2% expected. The US Dollar Index retreated from a six-month high, but its losses were limited due to the hawkish approach of the US Federal Reserve. With signs of a strong US economy and the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and steps by major banks, gold prices may experience downward pressure.
The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its benchmark interest rate to an unprecedented 4%, with many indications that this may be the last time. Such an increase would traditionally lead to lower demand for gold. 
Market participants expect the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight stance on monetary policy, possibly coupled with further interest rate hikes. Such decisions could discourage traders from investing heavily in gold. Although the market is bearish on gold prices in the near term, traders' main concern remains the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment index, which they expect to weaken slightly. 
In fact, China's favorable economic recovery is bullish for gold, but the combination of potential interest rate hikes and a strong U.S. economy could put downward pressure on precious metals prices in the near term.
Technical Analysis and Scenarios:

The alligator is showing signs of hunger, signaling a possible uptrend. The jaw (blue line) sits below the teeth (red line) and lips (green line), further confirming the start of an uptrend. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are in the green zone, which usually serves as confirmation of a buy signal. Given the current technical indicators and the approaching Alligator mouth opening, a bullish trend can be expected.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1925.00.
Take Profit: 1931.00.
Stop-loss: 1920.00.
  
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1910.00.
Take Profit: 1903.00.
Stop loss: 1915.00.