Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD for 13.02.2024

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading mixed as investors grapple with economic uncertainty and await key data releases. 

The latest rise in the gold price during today's session reflects cautious sentiment among investors as they build up long positions ahead of the US CPI report. The CPI data is highly expected, as it can reveal inflation trends and their impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. 

From a technical point of view, gold trading volume was lower due to the Chinese New Year holiday, which affected major markets in Asia. At the same time, gold prices were influenced by the strengthening US dollar and weak Treasury yields amid expectations that the Federal Reserve may postpone interest rate cuts further. At the moment, rate cuts are expected to start in May, however, some probability focus is shifting towards June. In his remarks, Dallas Fed President Laurie Logan emphasized caution in adjusting interest rates and pointed to the need for further evidence of continued progress in suppressing inflation. 

In addition, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a strengthening US dollar, which has put pressure on gold prices. Events such as rocket attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels and Israeli airstrikes on the Gaza Strip have increased regional instability, thereby affecting sentiment in global markets. 

In short, the near-term outlook for gold prices is closely linked to the next U.S. consumer price index report, with possible Federal Reserve policy changes and geopolitical events playing an important role. Investors are ready to react quickly to these events, indicating that the gold market is heading towards a more cautious period with the risk of facing a period of uncertainty.

Technical Analysis and Scenarios:

Although the indicator indicates a downtrend with the jaw (blue line) above the lips and teeth (green and red lines), the current market context could indicate a potential reversal or consolidation phase. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are in the green zone with bars close to the zero level, which is a strong confirming buy signal. This suggests that the momentum may shift to a bullish trend.

Main scenario (BUY)

Recommended entry level: 2040.00

Take Profit: 2050.00

Stop Loss: 2035.00

Alternative scenario (SELL)

Recommended entry level: 2020.00

Take Profit: 2012.00

Stop loss: 2000.00