Fundamental analysis USDJPY for 07.03.2024

The USD/JPY pair extended its decline during Thursday's early European session, hitting a four-week low around the 148.00 mark. This downward trajectory was fueled by a combination of factors, including a rise in Tokyo CPI and hawkish statements from Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials. Speculation that the BoJ might exit its negative interest rates regime as soon as this month.

Press reported on Wednesday that the Bank of Japan may consider lifting negative interest rates, as this year's wage negotiations are expected to yield solid results in promoting consumption.
Bank of Japan policymaker Junko Nakagawa said the central bank is gathering information to make policy decisions, and Japan's economy is on pace to meet inflation targets.
Nakagawa added that the prospect of sustainably achieving the 2% inflation target is gradually heightening, though consumption remains weak in both nominal and real terms, which warrants attention.
In addition, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that once a positive change in prices and inflation is confirmed, the central bank will consider canceling the large stimulus package. 
 Real wages of  Japanese workers fell for a 22nd straight month in January, data showed on Thursday, although the drop was the slowest  in more than a year due to weak cost pressures.
On the other side of the equation, the US Dollar (USD) struggled to gain traction, hovering near its lowest levels since early February. Mixed signals regarding the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting intentions added to the pressure on the USD/JPY pair. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a willingness to cut interest rates if inflation falls short of the 2% target, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated a more cautious approach, suggesting only two rate cuts for 2024. Data such as the ADP report, revealing slower wage growth and weaker-than-expected private-sector employment figures, reinforced expectations of potential Fed rate cuts later in the year.
Overall, Traders now look to Powell's second day of testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, which, along with the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Trade Balance data, could provide some impetus.
However, focus will remain on Friday's release of monthly US  employment data, known as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Technical analysis and scenarios:

the Alligator its mouth is wide open, its jaw (blue line) is raised above the lips and teeth (green and red lines), and the tool is facing downward. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are both in the red zone, which is a strong confirmatory sell signal.
Main scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 147.725
Take profit: 146.875
Stop loss: 148.400
Alternative scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 148.400
Take profit: 149.050
Stop loss: 147.725