Brent Crude Morning Brief: August 13, 2026

Brent Crude trades near $87.25 per barrel, consolidating near recent highs as market participants weigh a massive US domestic inventory buildup against ongoing shipping disruptions in the Middle East. Spot prices hold above initial support at $86.00, keeping technical focus on primary overhead resistance near $88.50. Official data from the US Energy Information Administration revealed a crude stock increase of +17.423 million barrels, marking the largest single-week build since January 2023. This domestic buildup coincides with a surge in US crude imports from Venezuela, which reached their highest level since September 2024, alongside Canadian arrivals hitting peaks last seen in March 2025 as refiners compensate for Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels dropping below 300 million barrels.

Fresh monthly reports from OPEC and the IEA both cut their 2026 demand forecasts. OPEC lowered its 2026 global demand growth projection to 580,000 barrels per day from 780,000 bpd, even as July OPEC+ output expanded by 1.42 million bpd to 37.66 million bpd due to higher Gulf production. In a parallel update, the International Energy Agency trimmed its 2026 global demand projection to 103.3 million bpd, representing a 1.6 million bpd contraction. The IEA also reduced its 2026 global production outlook by 4.27 million bpd to 102.02 million bpd, citing geopolitical threats to output, before anticipating a market surplus exceeding 4.6 million bpd in 2027.

Physical transit bottlenecks continue to underpin energy risk premiums. Freight rates for supertankers on the Middle East to China route hovered near $500,000 per day as regional hostilities keep maritime logistics constrained. Daily oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz currently average roughly 9 million barrels per day, down from pre-war volumes of 20 million bpd, with vessels frequently navigating the chokepoint using disabled transponders. Enforcement actions across these corridors remain active, underlined by an incident where US naval forces fired on a Panama-flagged vessel heading toward an Iranian port.

Market Overview: The path of least resistance points to range-bound price action between $86.00 and $88.50. Primary technical resistance stands at $88.50 and $90.50. On the downside, maintaining support above $86.00 remains essential to preserve the broader bullish structure. A breakdown below $86.00 risks pushing prices down toward secondary support at $83.80, though holding above current floor levels keeps Brent Crude positioned to test overhead barriers.