Fundamental analysis GBPUSD, EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, Brent, WTI for 29.11.2021
The U.S. dollar showed signs of recovery on Monday after losses last Friday. The Thanksgiving weekend in the US coincided with the news about the new strain COVID-19. Investors began to get rid of the dollar as the Fed could not react quickly to the new risks. Later, however, a number of members of the Open Market Committee said that the current run-up of the U.S. economy would allow it to survive the next wave of the virus. Officials advocated maintaining monetary policy plans. Moreover, some Fed members are pushing for an acceleration of QE cuts. Today, the speeches of Fed chief Powell, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen and ECB head Lagarde will take place. In any case, the discussion of the new COVID-19 strain by the heads of the regulators may create a strong short-term volatility.
EUR/USD is trading multidirectional today. In the first half of the day minimal support was given to the positive macroeconomic release from Eurozone. At the same time statistics was not enough for the breakdown of the psychological level 1.1300 and at the moment the pair is trading in the negative zone for the day.
The British pound also lost its value in the middle of the trading session on Monday. Decline in mortgage lending in Britain in October was the main driver of the GBP/USD decline today. The pair is again preparing to renew the lows of the current year, consolidating near the support level of 1.3300.
AUD/USD is showing mixed dynamics. Inventories declined in Q3, which is not surprising amid a rebound in economic activity after the lockdown. At the same time gross profit of Australian companies rose 4% over the same period, which was the reason for the pair's resilience. The NZD/USD and USD/CAD are in a difficult position. Both regulators have already started to raise the interest rates, but if the new strain will slow down the global economic recovery, it will be very difficult for the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to go back to loosening the monetary policy.
Brent and WTI opened with a price gap, as Investizo predicted Friday. The virologists calmed the market by announcing weak symptoms in carriers of the new strain. In addition, Pfizer is ready to provide a vaccine for the new version of COVID-19 in early 2022. However, the risk of demand decline amid a possible global slowdown in economic activity remains, and the pressure formed by the sale of strategic stocks by major oil consumers does not allow the hydrocarbons market to begin recovery.
Gold consolidated below 1800. Trading volume on the metals market has declined significantly. Further dynamics of XAU/USD depends on the information on the new strain.