General analysis EURUSD for 30.11.2021
Current dynamics
Yesterday EUR/USD was trading in different directions. In the first half of the day the U.S. currency held its positions ahead of the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury Secretary. The report on the new COVID-19 strain caused much anxiety in the market, however several Fed officials calmed the market by saying that the acceleration and strength of the U.S. economy can cope with a new wave of pandemics, the plans to reduce QE and monetary policy will not be reconsidered. At the same time, Jerome Powell said that a new mutation of the virus could prevent the regulator from increasing the key rate 2 times in 2022. The Omicron strain will have a negative impact on the labor market, as citizens will not return to work for fear of contracting the new version of the virus. A slowdown in the labor market will cause economic activity to decline. Under such a scenario, price pressures would intensify amid rising wages and trade deficits.
U.S. President Biden ruled out imposition of strict quarantine. Treasury Secretary Jeannette Yellen echoed Powell in her speech, noting that economic recovery is impossible without a successful fight against viruses.
At the same time the European currency got its support after the positive statistics on consumer prices was published today. The actual consumer price growth was 4.9% in November, which is better than the positive on 0.4% forecast. On an annualized basis the Core CPI rose to 2.6%
Today at 17:00 (GMT+2), the U.S. should release data on business activity and confidence. Also at 17:00 (GMT+2), Fed Chair Powell is expected to give another speech.
Support and resistance levels
On the 4-hour chart the instrument is testing the upper boundary of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed upward and the price range has widened, which indicates that the pair will continue to grow. Histogram MACD is growing in the positive zone, forming a buy signal. Stochastic entered the overbought area, a sell signal may be formed within 1-2 days.
- Support levels: 1.1170, 1.1205, 1.1240, 1.1260.
- Resistance levels: 1.1295, 1.1320, 1.1360, 1.1410.
Trading scenarios
- It is possible to open long positions above the level of 1.1380 with a target of 1.1445 and a stop-loss at the level of 1.1330. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
- Short positions should be opened below the level of 1.1330 with a target of 1.1270 and a stop-loss at the level of 1.1350. Implementation period: 1-2 days.