General analysis Brent for 10.03.2022

Current Dynamics

Despite the reduction in oil reserves in the US, the price continued its downward trend after US Secretary of State Blinken mentioned the United Arab Emirates (UAE) promise to increase its oil production.
However it is noteworthy that the UAE Minister of Energy Suhail Al Mazroui tweeted about the Emirates' commitment to the OPEC+ deal and the existing mechanisms of adjusting oil production volumes. At the same time, the UAE will urge OPEC to consider raising oil production levels.
At the same time, yesterday Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said that Caracas is ready to increase oil production to 2 million bpd. It is worth noting that now Venezuela produces about 800 thousand barrels per day, while before the still actual sanctions imposed by the USA, they produced about 3 million barrels per day.
At the same time, the United States urges the member countries of the European Union, their NATO allies, to follow their example and reject Russian oil. The European Union is not a single country and some of its members are fully dependent on Russian energy supplies: thus, Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Kirill Petkov, stated that although his country supports the anti-Russian sanctions, Bulgaria will have to make an exception for itself in case of the EU embargo on Russian oil imports.
It would be unusual for the U.S. to not immediately tell how imposed sanctions can be bypassed and who can do it. Thus, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a clarification on how settlements with Russian banks under the sanctions will be carried out, stressing separately that payments in the energy sector can and should be continued. The U.S. Ministry of Finance proposes the use of U-turn transactions, when money is transferred through an intermediary bank that is not sanctioned by the White House. This payment system is currently approved until June 24, 2022, with the possibility of prolongation. However, U.S. President Joseph Biden said that Russian oil will not be accepted at U.S. ports. But if U.S. businessmen can buy oil in Russia but cannot offload it at U.S. ports, the question of its destination remains open.

Although EIA data showed a decline of Oil reserves by 1.863m barrels instead of the 0.657m expected by experts, Brent crude continued its reduction following US Secretary of State Blinken's statement. However, U.S. President Joseph Biden said that Russian oil will not be accepted at U.S. ports. But if U.S. businessmen can buy oil in Russia but cannot offload it at U.S. ports, the question of its destination ranges is still open.

Support and resistance levels.

Yesterday the quotes failed to consolidate below the level of 108.25 and returned to growth. In the morning the instrument consolidated near the key Fibonacci 23.6 level. The current trend is upward. The RSI fell below the 50 level but did not reach the 30 level. The oscillator moved from decreasing to increasing in the morning.

• Support levels: 108.25, 102.15, 96.50
• Resistance levels: 122.30, 125.75, 131.00, 119.70, 117.00 , 113.75

Trading scenarios

• Long positions can be opened above the level of 113.75 with a target of 125.75, and a stop loss of 108.25. Implementation period: 1-3 days
• Short positions can be opened below the level of 108.25 with a target of 102.15 and a stop loss of 113.75. Implementation period: 1-3 days