Fundamental analysis GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, Brent, WTI for 11.03.2022
11.03.2022 16:58
Semana
Fundamental
On Friday there is less volatility in the forex market. Investizo expects USD to continue to strengthen against major currencies as most market participants are trying to get away from risk at this difficult time. Moreover, it is worth noting that Fed meeting will take place next week, where the regulator is likely to announce an interest rate hike with 99.9% probability. Of course the US is experiencing difficulties. Consumer price growth has reached a forty-year high, the stock market has fallen dramatically and the withdrawal of Russian oil has pushed up fuel prices. At the same time the US is one of the biggest oil exporters, which means the US economy is more resilient to sanctions against the Russian oil sector than Europe. It is also worth noting the high level of savings among US households, which will allow to survive the high price pressure with fewer losses, while the Fed will continue to conduct aggressive monetary policy.
Yesterday the EUR/USD fell below 1.1000 following the ECB meeting. The European regulator announced its intention to accelerate the winding down of asset purchases under the APP. A complete withdrawal of the programme should occur in the third quarter of this year, which increases the likelihood of a rate hike this year. At the same time, early abandonment of APP and a forced key rate hike pose high risks in a slowing economy. The conflict in Ukraine, rising fuel and gas prices in Europe and the shrinking of many industries as a result of anti-Russian sanctions could lead the European economy to stagflation.
GBP/USD is consolidating near the lows of late 2020. Today in the morning the UK published strong GDP and industrial production data for January. At the same time investors realise that there will be a recession in February and March. In addition an unexpectedly large trade deficit has prevented the pair to push back from a local low.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD are moderately lower on Friday. After reaching a peak of interest in risky assets on Monday, when the price of both Pacific Rim currencies touched new yearly highs, traders recorded a large volume of long positions. The technical analysis indicates that the uptrend will continue, however the geopolitical situation will not allow the currencies with high beta coefficient to rise. USD/CAD declined today amid strong macro statistics from Canada. The employment data component of the Canadian business activity data was showing a possible high reading but the employment growth of more than 336K in February has exceeded expectations. The unemployment rate thus fell sharply from 6.5% to 5.5% in February.
Brent and WTI are recovering moderately on Friday after falling sharply the day before. The collective west is doing all it can to impose an embargo on Russian oil. The US called on the biggest oil producers to increase production levels and free up reserves to replace a share of Russian exports. At the same time, Russian hydrocarbons cannot be abandoned quickly without avoiding a huge supply deficit.
The XAU/USD has fallen below 2000.00. The effect of the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is creating strong volatility in the metals market, so most investors have opted to use the USD as a "safe haven asset".
Yesterday the EUR/USD fell below 1.1000 following the ECB meeting. The European regulator announced its intention to accelerate the winding down of asset purchases under the APP. A complete withdrawal of the programme should occur in the third quarter of this year, which increases the likelihood of a rate hike this year. At the same time, early abandonment of APP and a forced key rate hike pose high risks in a slowing economy. The conflict in Ukraine, rising fuel and gas prices in Europe and the shrinking of many industries as a result of anti-Russian sanctions could lead the European economy to stagflation.
GBP/USD is consolidating near the lows of late 2020. Today in the morning the UK published strong GDP and industrial production data for January. At the same time investors realise that there will be a recession in February and March. In addition an unexpectedly large trade deficit has prevented the pair to push back from a local low.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD are moderately lower on Friday. After reaching a peak of interest in risky assets on Monday, when the price of both Pacific Rim currencies touched new yearly highs, traders recorded a large volume of long positions. The technical analysis indicates that the uptrend will continue, however the geopolitical situation will not allow the currencies with high beta coefficient to rise. USD/CAD declined today amid strong macro statistics from Canada. The employment data component of the Canadian business activity data was showing a possible high reading but the employment growth of more than 336K in February has exceeded expectations. The unemployment rate thus fell sharply from 6.5% to 5.5% in February.
Brent and WTI are recovering moderately on Friday after falling sharply the day before. The collective west is doing all it can to impose an embargo on Russian oil. The US called on the biggest oil producers to increase production levels and free up reserves to replace a share of Russian exports. At the same time, Russian hydrocarbons cannot be abandoned quickly without avoiding a huge supply deficit.
The XAU/USD has fallen below 2000.00. The effect of the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is creating strong volatility in the metals market, so most investors have opted to use the USD as a "safe haven asset".