Fundamental analysis GBPUSD, EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD, Brent, WTI for 16.03.2022

Today is filled with a large number of significant macroeconomic releases that will contribute to increased volatility during the day and could also cause significant price gaps during the opening of the new trading session. The main drivers for the market on Wednesday are releases on US retail sales, Canada's core consumer price index, the weekly API report on US crude oil inventories, and the announcement of the Fed's interest rate decision. Investors expect the US regulator to raise the key rate for the first time since 2018. As recently as February, a rate hike of 50 basis points was not in doubt, but the conflict in Ukraine has made significant adjustments to the outlook for the global economy and inflation in particular. Recall that US inflation has risen to a 40-year high and rising energy prices are adding to price pressures in all key global economies. Given the uncertainty, the US central bank might be less aggressive today. In this regard, it is important to pay attention to the press conference after the announcement of the monetary policy decision.
This week EUR/USD is showing minimal gains in a limited price range. From a technical analysis point of view, it cannot be said that the pair has overcome the key resistance of 1.1000. The European currency has retreated from local lows due to falling hydrocarbon prices and also the euro is reacting positively to the progress of the negotiation process between Moscow and Kyiv. Yesterday the pair ignored the falling economic sentiment in Germany. Today a similar reaction was during the release of retail sales data, reflecting a slowdown in February. Further dynamics of the pair depend on the Fed meeting. In any case, the geopolitical situation, the unclear monetary policy, and the macroeconomic outlook is pointing at a weak EUR in the medium term.
Yesterday GBP/USD strengthened after the release of UK labor market data. Unemployment fell in January, falling 4.1% to 3.9%. Jobless claims fell by 48.1k in February while the average earnings index rose by 0.2%.AUD/USD and NZD/USD are strengthening on Wednesday ahead of the Fed meeting. The New Zealand dollar rose after the release of strong data on business activity in the services sector. New Zealand's GDP release is also worth paying attention to today. The progress of the Australian currency is less positive as pandemic restrictions have taken a heavy toll on the economy. Australia is to release important labor market statistics today as well as the Reserve Bank of Australia is to release its monthly report. USD/CAD is declining today amid the release of Canadian macroeconomic inflation statistics. The price pressure is getting stronger in Canada and it is pushing the Bank of Canada to be more aggressive.
Brent and WTI are moderately strengthening today after collapsing the day before. Of course, a contraction in long positions, when multiyear highs are reached, is always accompanied by a drop in the market. At the same time, black gold has suffered losses this week due to a week-long lockdown in China's major industrial center, Zhenzhen. OPEC acknowledged that the market deficit was reduced due to high commodity prices triggered by Russia's military operation in Ukraine. At the same time OPEC+ has maintained production levels, but as always warned of a willingness to review and quickly adjust quotas. It is also worth noting that the US cannot count on oil from Venezuela and is rejecting Iranian oil as part of the nuclear-program negotiations. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have previously refused Washington's request to ramp up production on their own. Both states do not intend to negotiate with the US outside of OPEC+.
XAU/USD, as well as oil, fell victim to a sell-off after hitting an all-time high. The instrument is trading in a limited price range today in anticipation of the Fed meeting. Investizo believes that increased uncertainty in the global economy will allow gold to gain a foothold in the safe-haven status, which will boost prices in the metals market.