Fundamental analysis AUDUSD for 08.06.2023

A brief review of economic developments:

Australia:

The Australian economy continues to show signs of recovery, with output up 0.8% in May. This indicates stability in the economy, which supports the Australian dollar.

However, there are concerns about rising inflation. Tighter monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia may be a forced measure. If this happens, the Australian currency will not get long-term support in the current macroeconomic and geopolitical realities. Ironically, the RBA's hawkish policy would rather make the national currency more vulnerable.

US: 

The U.S. has seen an increase in nonfarm payrolls, which is a positive signal for the economy and could strengthen the dollar.

However, rising inflation continues to raise concerns that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates. The Fed is trying to pause its monetary restriction cycles, and if the regulator raises its key rate at the next meeting, it will be a signal of weakness in the U.S. economy to investors.

 The impact of macroeconomic statistics:

 Australia:

Australia's trade balance in April was $11.158 billion, lower than the $14.000 billion forecast and the previous value of $14.822 billion. This indicates lower exports compared to imports, and has a negative impact on the Australian dollar.

 U.S.:

 The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. is expected to be 235,000, slightly higher than the previous value of 232,000. If the actual number is higher than forecast, it could provide support for the U.S. currency.

The release of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and reserve balances from the Federal Reserve Banks is also expected. If this data shows an increase, it would indicate a positive increase in liquidity in the system.

 Technical Analysis and Scenarios:

 Key levels:

 Support levels: 0.64700, 0.65140, 0.65500, 0.65900

Resistance levels: 0.66465, 0.66780, 0.67100, 0.67490, 0.67895

 Stochastic Oscillator shows 35.6671, which indicates that the pair is below 50 and it might be oversold. However, the signal value of 25.5273 indicates a possible beginning of an uptrend.

 The Bollinger Bands show that the price is in the lower band range, which might indicate for a possible strengthening of the Australian dollar in the near future. However, the width of the bands remains moderately wide, indicating continued volatility.

 The MACD shows 0.002428, which is below the signal value of 0.002955, which might indicate a possible decline in the Australian dollar.

 Now with all the data in mind, including key support and resistance levels, here is my analysis and forecast for the coming days:

 Main scenario: AUD/USD could continue to move down to the support level of 0.65140, given the current economic situation and technical indicators. If this level is broken, the next support level will be 0.64700. In this case, it is recommended to open short positions with take profit target at 0.64700 and stop loss at 0.65500.

 Alternate scenario: If AUD/USD starts to strengthen and breaks through the resistance level at 0.66465, this may indicate the start of an uptrend. In this case, the next resistance level will be 0.66780. It is recommended to open long positions with take profit target at 0.66780 and stop loss at 0.65900.