Fundamental analysis of WTI

In the Central Asian market on Monday, WTI crude traded at $69.45. Energy markets are showing mixed signals due to a combination of global factors affecting oil supply and demand. 

 OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Gais said that one of the factors affecting the oil market is the expected increase in global oil demand. He noted that OPEC expects global oil demand to reach 110 million barrels by 2045. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser also commented on the company's overall fundamentals. This optimistic view was initially buoyed by geopolitical unrest around Russia and hopes for an economic recovery in China, which pushed oil prices up from their lowest levels in 2 weeks. 

 Conversely, concerns about China's economic growth have caused oil prices to fall. The news that S&P Global Ratings cut its 2023 GDP growth forecast for China to 5.2% from 5.5% and fears that major investors will refrain from investing in China caused a stir. The possibility of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike could also contribute to lower prices and a reduction in global oil demand. 

 In addition, political instability in Russia has added another complication. While Rystad Energy, a consulting firm, believes that this event is short-lived and will not have a significant impact on oil prices, it is indicative of increased geopolitical risks due to instability within Russia. There are also concerns about possible disruptions to Russian oil supplies, especially if martial law is declared, limiting access to loading ports and key energy facilities. The White House has been engaging with oil producers to obtain contingency plans for any impact on Russian oil production. Goldman Sachs acknowledged that the likelihood of supply disruptions is growing because of the situation in Russia. Since oil prices are affected by many factors, traders should keep an eye on U.S. inflation data as well as geopolitical developments in Russia and economic growth in China. К. State and rhetoric of central banks, results at the European Central Bank Forum. U.S. bank stress test. Many of these factors create a very dynamic and unpredictable environment for WTI crude oil prices, and more volatility is expected in the near term.

Given geopolitical risks, potential interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and concerns about China's economic growth, oil prices may continue to face downward pressure.

Technical analysis and scenarios:

The Alligator indicator indicates that the market is in a downtrend, with its jaw (blue line) well above the lips and teeth (green and red lines).

Although fundamental analysis suggests a bearish outlook, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) technical indicators are in the green zone, which could be a confirming buy signal. This may indicate a potential bullish reversal.

Recommended entry level (BUY): 68.50.

Take Profit: 71.00.

Stop loss: 68.00.

Recommended entry level (SELL): 71.00.

Take profit: 68.50.

Stop Loss: 72.00.