Fundamental analysis of WTI

The main US commodity, WTI crude oil, traded around 76.00 USD on Friday amid sentiment driven by various market factors. A report from the Energy Department showed that crude oil inventories increased by 708 thousand barrels as of the week of July 14, up from the previous week's 5.946 million barrels, but remaining below expectations of a 2.44 million barrel decline.

While the report provides support for WTI, gains may be limited as markets reassess the possibility of a Fed rate hike after the July meeting. It is important to consider the interplay between rising interest rates, higher borrowing costs, the possibility of slower economic growth and lower oil demand.

Internationally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expects oil demand to increase in the second half of the year as China is the world's largest oil consumer. Separately, Russia announced that it plans to cut oil exports by 2.1 million tons in the third quarter, following a voluntary cut of 500,000 bpd agreed in August. Saudi Arabia also extended a voluntary production cut of 1 million bpd until next month. Such production decisions are helping to strengthen the economy, which in turn has a positive impact on oil prices.

China's announced measures to stimulate the use of goods and services provided additional support to WTI prices. Despite concerns over weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data, Beijing's announcement about the possibility of further economic stimulus is encouraging.

Data indicating low inflation and moderate employment growth in the US further support the outlook. Next week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be closely watched by traders, creating a favorable environment for oil prices. 

A combination of factors such as the outlook for China's economic recovery, production decisions from major oil producing countries and positive data from the US supported the price of WTI crude oil. Due to the recent recovery, the market is generally positive. 

Technical analysis and scenarios:

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading at around $76.10 and is within significant market boundaries that include support levels of 74.90, 73.50 and 72.00 and resistance levels of 77.00 and 80.00. The Bollinger Bands indicator, which measures price volatility, is currently indicating an uptrend with the upper band at 76.60, the middle band at 75.50, and the lower band at 74.40. The price is declining within the upper band of the indicator and the price range itself is narrowing, indicating a possible decrease in volatility.

Main scenario (BUY)

Recommended entry level: 77.00.

Take Profit: 78.50.

Stop-loss: 76.00.

Alternative scenario (SELL)

Recommended entry level: 74.90.

Take Profit: 73.50.

Stop loss: 76.00.