Fundamental analysis of WTI

US WTI crude oil quotes fluctuated slightly on Tuesday, with the price trading around 81.10 USD per barrel, slightly below the three-month high. Markets continue to reflect a reduction in global supply as producers continue to adhere to production cuts and the United States, the world's largest consumer, shows strong demand. However, concerns have been raised about the possibility of a correction in prices due to overbought conditions before the end of the month.
Analysts point to many positive effects in the market, including a weaker U.S. dollar and optimism in China. This could provide support for oil futures. A weakening US dollar tends to be supportive as it makes oil in dollars cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Another positive factor was signs of a soft landing in the US economy, which contributed to a positive outlook for oil demand. This view was reinforced by new directives from Chinese authorities to stimulate the financial system and domestic consumption after four consecutive months of contraction in manufacturing activity, as evidenced by a PMI of 49.3 in July, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Expectations are rising ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. On Friday, experts at National Australia Bank forecast oil prices will peak in 2023 if Saudi Arabia extends its voluntary two-month supply cut. In June, OPEC+ agreed to limit oil supply until 2024, with Saudi Arabia committing to voluntary cuts of another one million barrels from July, although there have been almost no actual cuts.The news was bolstered by USA data showing that confirmed fuel demand rose to 20.78 million bpd in May, the best level since August 2019, while gasoline demand reached 9.11 million bpd, the best level since June 2022. In addition, there was a decline in U.S. crude oil and fuel inventories by about 900,000 barrels for the week ended July 28.
Despite the upward trend in volumes, escalating technology tensions between the US and China could also put pressure on WTI quotes following China's announcement that it will impose rules on exports of certain drones and related systems to the US from September 1 due to "national security and interests". Oil traders will also keep a close eye on upcoming U.S. employment data, including reports on open job openings, private sector employment, weekly jobless claims and unit labor costs, culminating in the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. This data is expected to have a significant impact on WTI quotes in US dollars.
In short, despite the lingering threat of a correction, the overall sentiment towards WTI oil prices looks bullish, supported by a tightening global supply policy and strong demand in key markets, including the US and China, as well as anticipation of the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting in the near future.
Technical analysis and scenarios:

The main scenario for WTI crude oil is a bullish outlook for the near term. The price is currently at $81.10, which corresponds to the upper range of the Bollinger Bands, and the direction of the Bollinger Bands is upward with the price range widening, indicating the possibility of further price growth.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 82.50.
Take Profit: 85.00.
Stop-loss: 80.50.
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 79.50.
Take Profit: 78.00.
Stop loss: 80.30.