Fundamental analysis of WTI

07.08.2023 10:04
Intradía
Fundamental

The price of WTI crude fell slightly on Monday, but remained near its April high at 82.20 thanks to global supply management tactics by major producers, primarily Saudi Arabia and Russia. These countries have pledged to continue cutting supplies for another month in order to tighten global markets and support prices. 
Such joint actions by oil giants are aimed at countering market fluctuations. The market remains stable due to expectations of a slowdown in US interest rate hikes, OPEC+ oil supply cuts and an expected recovery in oil demand from China. In addition, Saudi Arabia announced to continue its voluntary production cuts of 1 million bpd until the end of September, while Russia pledged to cut oil exports by 300,000 bpd in the same month, despite recent events at the Black Sea naval base.
The number of active oil rigs in the US last week fell to its lowest since March 2022 at 525, a pullback in the US dollar index after a three-week uptrend is giving WTI crude oil prices further impetus. At the time of publication of this article, the DXY is at 102.25, reinforcing bullish sentiment. 
However, the optimism caused by these factors is somewhat offset by concerns about the pace of China's economic recovery and the duration of supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Inflation data from China and the US should be monitored during the week, as these countries are the largest consumers of oil and their economic data will play an important role in determining the clear direction of the market.
Technical analysis and scenarios:


At the current price of 82.20 USD WTI lingers near the middle band (81.05) of the Bollinger Bands indicator pointing horizontally, indicating a possible period of market consolidation. The price is declining within the upper range of the indicator, indicating a possible change in momentum.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 82.50.
Take profit: 85.00.
Stop loss: 80.50.
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 80.80.
Take Profit: 79.50.
Stop loss: 81.50.