Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

Gold prices are struggling to gain traction, especially when they are near quarterly lows. At the moment, gold is trading at 1906.00.
 
 One of the main reasons for this is the stability of the US dollar. Being near a two-month high, the US dollar seems to be drawing strength from market sentiment related to Federal Reserve policy. The prevailing view among market participants is that the Fed will maintain its hawkish attitude and a 25 basis point rate hike is possible later this year. This view is supported by US macroeconomic indicators, which particularly emphasize the difficulty of achieving the 2% inflation target set by the Fed. The U.S. Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index indicate that inflationary pressures are easing, which has led to a rise in bond yields. This rise in bond yields is causing problems for lagging gold. However, some respite is being provided by economic concerns related to China. Recent below-average growth in retail sales and industrial production in July, despite an unexpected rate cut by the People's Bank of China, has raised concerns. Therefore, gold, recognized as a safe haven, is finding some support in times of uncertainty. 
 
The strength of the U.S. economy, as evidenced by current data, has led the Fed and economic analysts to significantly reduce the likelihood of recession. The central bank's overall strategy is summed up by a new maxim: not "hard landing" or "soft landing" but "no landing." In essence, this implies a large-scale economic expansion, making it difficult to control inflation without deeper intervention in the exchange rate. Nevertheless, there is a high probability that interest rates will remain unchanged at the next FOMC meeting. Investors are now eagerly awaiting the release of the FOMC meeting minutes for more information.
As investors awaited upcoming economic reports from the U.S., including monthly retail sales and manufacturing activity index data, these reports, along with bond yield volatility, were poised to play an important role in determining the trajectory of the dollar and gold. Despite these potential short-term trading signals, fundamentals still look bearish.
  
Technical Analysis and Scenarios:

The Alligator indicator indicates that the market is in a downtrend. The "hungry" status of the Alligator, represented by the gaping maw and the positioning of the jaw (blue line) well above the teeth and lips (green and red lines), indicates that the bears are in control of the market and the downtrend may continue. AO and AC Oscillators: the Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are in the red zone. This is a bearish confirmation, further confirming the downtrend outlook for XAU/USD. Given the strong bearish indicators and the proximity of the price to the first support level, the main scenario is the continuation of the downtrend.
Main scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1900.00.
Take Profit: 1893.00.
Stop Loss: 1905.00.
Alternative scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1910.00.
Take profit: 1915.00.
Stop-loss: 1905.00.