Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD

EUR/USD declined% and recently stabilized at $1.09250. This change was mainly influenced by an unexpected increase in US retail sales data. 
 
The focus now shifts to economic activity in the Eurozone. Important data such as employment growth, the second estimate of GDP and industrial production data are eagerly awaited. The economic sentiment index indicates broad optimism. However, uncertainty remains about the Eurozone's ability to avoid further macroeconomic contraction. Forecasts suggest the possibility of quarterly growth of 0.3% in the eurozone economy after stagnation in the first quarter. A revision to these early estimates and July industrial production data, which is expected to decline by 0.1%, will be crucial.
It is important to realize that employment figures and GDP data may have a greater impact as they provide information on consumption trends, which is one of the main focuses of the European Central Bank. Unfavorable labor market results could indicate a possible slowdown in consumption growth in the Eurozone. Even so, the growing contribution of the services sector to the Eurozone economy will reduce the attractiveness of industrial production figures. This will be confirmed if upcoming industrial production data is in line with recent private sector PMIs. 
 
In the US, close attention is being paid to industrial production data for July. The manufacturing sector, which accounts for less than 30% of the US economy, will have no impact on Fed sentiment. However, any noticeable slowdown in the housing sector could cause concern. The minutes of the upcoming FOMC meeting will have a bigger impact on the EUR/USD rally. If the minutes turn out to be hawkish, EUR/USD could come under further downward pressure, especially if US economic data indicates a strengthening economy.
Technical analysis and scenarios:

The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory but moving upwards, which could indicate a possible upward reversal or bounce in the short term. Price is trading near the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a potential oversold condition. Combined with the narrowing of the bands, this suggests a decrease in volatility and a possible imminent price move. The fact that price is trending upwards towards the middle band could indicate a short-term bullish move. The MACD line is just above its signal line, indicating a possible bullish crossover. This could hint at a short-term upward momentum.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1.10690.
Take Profit: 1.11400.
Stop Loss: 1.10200. 
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1.09000.
Take profit: 1.08140.
Stop loss: 1.09500.