Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD

EUR/USD is experiencing moderate volatility and is trading at 1.08120.
The data on consumer confidence in Germany and France are in the center of attention. The German Consumer Climate Index fell to -25.5, which is lower than the expected -24.3. The unexpected drop in this index indicates a decline in consumption and further strains the German service sector. However, one cannot rely on the headline figures alone. Digging deeper reveals the impact of the strength of the labor market on last month's earnings expectations. The decline in this area will be significant. No ECB Executive Board members are scheduled to speak today, but their comments are still important. Austrian Governor Holtzmann recently downplayed the risk of recession when discussing further ECB interest rate hikes to combat inflation. 
As for the US, consumer confidence, job numbers and a drop in retail sales in July this year were the main factors. A decline in consumer confidence could lead to a contraction in private spending. In such a scenario, the Fed could leave rates unchanged if demand-driven inflationary pressures ease. In particular, wage growth driven by a tight labor market is currently hampering the Fed's policy of reducing disposable income. The large difference between vacancies and turnover indicates a change in labor market dynamics and could make EUR/USD more susceptible to this data. 
Against this backdrop, EUR/USD benefited from lower US Treasury yields and a general increase in risk appetite, pushing the dollar higher. Recent comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde on keeping interest rates high to curb inflation also boosted the euro. However, worrisome Eurozone PMI data and the possibility of another Fed rate hike fueled speculation that the ECB may suspend its rate hike cycle out of caution. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments at a recent symposium in Jackson Hole reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to continue raising interest rates to contain inflation. As the U.S. economy shows resilience, the Fed may maintain a hawkish stance and contribute to the strength of the U.S. dollar. 
Given these developments, traders and investors would be wise to wait for a strong buying trend to emerge before concluding that EUR/USD is stable in the near term. In the near term, we will turn to the release of US data to get an insight into consumer confidence and the labor market.
Technical analysis and scenarios:

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.08120, just below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Given that the direction of the Bollinger Bands is downward and the price range is narrowing, bearish sentiment prevails. In addition, the Stochastic indicates that the pair may be overbought recently as its value is 57.1557, which is below the signal level of 66.7677. The MACD value of -0.001024, being above its signal value of -0.001619, nevertheless gives a weak bullish hint.
Main scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1.07640.
Take Profit: 1.07260.
Stop loss: 1.07800.
Alternative scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1.08480.
Take Profit: 1.09000.
Stop loss: 1.08150.