Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD

EUR/USD experienced strong volatility, dropping to 1.05840. 
Despite European Central Bank President Lagarde's stance in favor of extending higher interest rates to manage inflation, fears of a possible recession in the Eurozone persist. This feeling may have increased after ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane spoke at a joint conference of the European Central Bank, the Bank of France and the Center for Economic Policy Research. 
Another important factor will be this week's inflation statistics for Germany, France and the eurozone. Lower inflationary pressures may allow the ECB to be more flexible on interest rates, thus avoiding a sharp downturn. The central bank's consumer confidence index will also be in focus, which is expected to decline slightly. However, stabilization of consumer confidence indicators will lead to increased consumption and higher inflation. 
A positive economic outlook could make it possible for the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which would subsequently reduce demand-driven inflationary pressures. Although the US dollar is currently dominant, lower consumer confidence ahead of the release of Eurozone and US inflation data could increase concerns about the difficult economic situation in America. A less aggressive approach to the U.S. economy could reduce existing economic and political divisions in favor of the euro. 
The euro is currently on a downward trajectory against a strong US dollar, influenced by rising US Treasury bond yields and a strong US economy. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries have reached significant levels. Market fears are heightened by statements from US President Joe Biden and his key advisors about the impact of a federal government shutdown. Concerns have been raised about potential problems, including disruptions to food benefits for millions of people. Even if an initial agreement on government spending is reached, possible disagreements in House and Senate budget decisions could lead to a partial government shutdown. 
Investors' attention will be focused on key economic indicators such as the US personal consumption goods price index and the harmonized consumer price index in the Eurozone. Information on these indicators is likely to determine the dynamics of EUR/USD trading in the coming days.
Technical analysis and scenarios:

The price is near the lower Bollinger Band located at 1/05795. The bands are widening, indicating increased volatility. The direction of the middle band indicates a downtrend. Stoch(5,3,3) shows a value of 17.7892 with a signal at 17.4996. This indicates that EUR/USD is currently in oversold territory as it is below the 20 level. Historically, levels below 20 on the stochastic oscillator signify an oversold condition and may hint at a possible reversal or bounce in the short term. The MACD value is -0.002271 and the signal is -0.001571. A negative value and MACD being below its signal line indicates bearish momentum. Given the bearish signals of the indicators and the price trending near the lower Bollinger Band, it is likely that the pair may test the nearest support at 1.05500.
Main scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1.05500.
Take Profit: 1.04900.
Stop Loss: 1.05800. 
Alternative scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1.06200.
Take Profit: 1.06600.
Stop loss: 1.06000.