Fundamental analysis of WTI

At the beginning of the week, oil prices experienced significant fluctuations. On Monday, prices fell by more than 3%, with US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling to 82.20 USD per barrel. This is due to the hope that the intensified Israeli ground operations in the Gaza Strip will not have an overall impact on oil and gas supplies, despite the high number of human casualties. 
Indeed, markets seemed to have factored in geopolitical risks on Friday, while Monday was guided by other macroeconomic trends. However, the oil market recovered on Tuesday, with December Brent crude futures returning to 87.80 per barrel and December WTI crude futures rising slightly to 82.60 per barrel. This recovery is largely due to growing concerns about possible supply disruptions due to increasing geopolitical instability in the Middle East. This is evidenced by the escalating Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip and fears of possible disruptions to Iran's oil supply. In addition, the unpredictability of elections in Venezuela and possible changes in US sanctions policy increase supply vulnerability. 
At the same time, there is uncertainty about demand from China, the world's second largest oil consumer. The country's economic indicators have fallen, especially the purchasing managers' index, indicating a downturn in the economy. Given China's important role in global oil consumption, this slowdown could put downward pressure on oil prices. Amid such supply and demand movement, the market is also paying close attention to the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting. Historically, oil markets have been sensitive to Fed policies, especially those that affect domestic fuel consumption. After the U.S. economy posted a better-than-expected growth rate of 4.9% in the third quarter, there were hopes that the rate hike plan would remain unchanged. 
Given the situation, the World Bank also warned that if the conflict between Israel and Hamas escalates beyond its current limits, oil prices could rise sharply. Overall, while there are clear bullish signs related to potential supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, they are offset by macroeconomic factors such as demand concerns from China and Federal Reserve policy.
Technical analysis and scenarios:

The WTI price is currently at 82.20, just above one of the defined support levels at 81.20. The Bollinger Bands show a widening price range, indicating increased volatility. Since price is in the lower range of the Bollinger Bands and the bands indicate a downward direction, there is a bearish sentiment in the market. If the bearish momentum persists, we may see further price decline towards the first support level of 81.20. A break below this level may push the price towards the next support levels of 79.80 and then 78.50.
Main scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level : 81.20
Take Profit: 79.80.
Stop Loss: 81.75.
Alternative scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 83.50.
Take Profit: 84.75.
Stop loss: 83.00.