Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

Gold prices are currently trading near a three-week high, largely driven by speculation that the US may delay another rate hike. Recent data has cast a shadow over the strength of the US economy, with Treasury yields in particular falling after job openings in July fell to a two-and-a-half year low. At the same time, an unexpected drop in consumer confidence in August lent further support to gold prices given its attractiveness in times of economic uncertainty. 
Geopolitical tensions between the US and China may strengthen gold's position as a traditional "safe-haven" asset. This assumption is particularly relevant in light of recent dialogue highlighting U.S. concerns about the operational challenges faced by its businesses in China and discussions of export restrictions. At the same time, China, one of the world's major gold consumers, has been taking stimulus measures to strengthen capital markets and boost investor sentiment. These measures could support gold prices.
The Fed's interest rate policy outlook will play a particularly important role. Rising interest rates often have a negative impact on gold because they increase the opportunity cost of owning the metal, which does not generate income. Powell hinted at the possibility of a rate hike, but emphasized that it would depend on new economic data. Market sentiment suggests that expectations for a rate hike at the next meeting are waning. 
Important data such as the US second quarter GDP and employment, China's manufacturing PMI and the US non-farm payrolls forecast always attract traders' attention. Unexpected changes in these releases can create significant volatility in the currency market and adjust gold prices in the short term. To summarize, the combination of economic data and geopolitical tensions has given gold a cautiously bullish outlook, but future economic data releases will be critical to trend formation. Investors should keep a close eye on developments.
  
Technical Analysis and Scenarios:

The Alligator indicator indicates that the market is hungry for an uptrend. This is evidenced by the wide open jaw, with the jaw (blue line) well below the lips and teeth (green and red lines). The Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are in the green zone. This combination is a solid confirming buy signal for traders. Given the current technical indicators, the main scenario suggests a bullish trend for XAU/USD in the near term.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1943.00.
Take Profit: 1950.00.
Stop Loss: 1937.00.
 
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1931.00.
Take Profit: 1922.00.
Stop loss: 1937.00.