Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

The value of gold fell slightly on Tuesday to trade at 1932.10, mainly influenced by a stronger US dollar and growing expectations of upcoming inflation data. The U.S. dollar rose against major currencies, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers. 
 
Investor attention this week is mainly focused on US inflation. While markets recognize the decline in headline inflation, core inflation remains a key driver for the Federal Reserve. The apparent strength of these indicators is likely to reinforce gold's downtrend. In particular, if Thursday's Consumer Price Index comes in above expectations, it could increase speculation of further rate hikes at the Fed's September meeting. The prospect of policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve looks set to continue to support the US dollar, leading to a downward trend in gold prices. Market participants seem confident in the possibility of a 25 basis point rate hike in September or November. The employment situation in the US is characterized by high rates of wage growth and unemployment. In addition, statements from Fed officials such as Michelle Bowman and John Williams indicate the need to raise interest rates to manage inflation.
Also weighing on the koloto was trade data, which showed that China's exports fell 14.5% year-on-year and imports fell 12.4%, the biggest drop since February 2020. That said, China is a major consumer of gold. 
  
Meanwhile, gold's trajectory looks rather bearish. The combination of possible changes in interest rates, inflationary processes in the U.S. and the economic background in the main gold consuming countries may put additional downward pressure on the metal. The overall picture due to multiple factors suggests that gold's recent decline may not have bottomed out yet, suggesting that the path of least resistance for XAU/USD is tilted to the downside.
  
Technical Analysis and Scenarios:

The Alligator indicator indicates the presence of a downtrend. This is evidenced by the fact that the jaw (blue line) is well above the lips and teeth (green and red lines) and the jaw is wide open. Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC): Both oscillators are in the green zone and their bars are approaching the zero line. This is a strong bullish signal indicating a potential upward momentum. Both oscillators are in the green zone and their bars are approaching the zero line. This is a strong bullish signal indicating a potential upward momentum. Given the mixed signals from the indicators, it is likely that the XAU/USD pair will move sideways, consolidating between the support level of 1929.00 and the resistance level of 1938.00. 
Main scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1929.00.
Take Profit: 1916.00.
Stop Loss: 1936.00.
Alternative scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1938.00.
Take Profit: 1945.80.
Stop loss: 1935.00.