Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

The gold market (XAU/USD) has been characterized by a lack of buying interest in recent trading sessions, which has led to three consecutive days of declines. At the European session on Wednesday, the gold price is hovering around 1966.00, not much higher than the previous day's two-week low of 1956.50. 
Market participants remain cautious as they await further clarity from the Federal Reserve on interest rate trends. The tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members has been decidedly hawkish, recognizing the strength of the U.S. economy and increasing uncertainty about future interest rate hikes. Investors are therefore looking forward to speeches by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled for today and Thursday, which are likely to be crucial for the future development of gold prices. 
Meanwhile, the US dollar continued its recovery from recent lows, putting downward pressure on the gold market. Nevertheless, concerns about a weak stock market and a weak Chinese economy provide some support for the precious metal, making pessimistic people cautious. 
Changing geopolitical background and central banks' stance on monetary policy, as well as the dollar's appreciation lead to lower yields and no clear direction for gold. Fed officials remain neutral and say that further monetary policy will depend on the data. Fed Chair Powell is expected to continue to talk about pausing rate hikes in his future statements, with market futures indicating that the likelihood of further rate hikes has diminished and a rate cut before March is unlikely. 
Even if interest rates remain stable, sustained economic conditions may warrant further rate increases, contradicting some market participants' expectations that the rate hike cycle is nearing an end. Future economic announcements are likely to shape the near-term outlook for gold, which is leaning towards a cautious stance. Precious metal price movements are expected to be in line with broader economic trends and monetary policy outlook, with a bearish trend emerging in the near term.
Technical analysis and scenarios:

The alligator is "hungry" with its mouth wide open - the jaw (blue line) is above the lips and teeth (green and red lines), indicating a downtrend. Awesome Oscillator (AO): The indicator is in the green zone but near the zero level, which could signal a potential change in momentum or buying pressure. Accelerator Oscillator (AC): Is also in the green zone near the zero level, indicating a buy signal that could precede a change in momentum.
Main Scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1960.00.
Take Profit: 1955.00.
Stop loss: 1962.50.
Alternative scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1975.00.
Take Profit: 1980.00.
Stop loss: 1972.50.00.