Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

Gold prices, as represented by the XAU/USD pair, are currently maintaining bullish momentum as investors closely follow early U.S. employment, inflation and economic activity data. This is due to the negative sentiment in the market, possibly making gold more attractive because of the recent weak data from the U.S.

 At the same time, fears of recession and central banks' propensity to raise rates despite bad data have dampened risk appetite. In turn, this had a favorable effect on gold, as it is traditionally considered a "safe haven. Other factors weighing on gold prices included fears of Chinese economic recovery, massive capital outflows from China, trade tensions between the U.S. and China and geopolitical uncertainty with Russia, Ukraine and Iran. 

 Gold prices remained steady on Thursday as investors maintained heightened vigilance in anticipation of a range of U.S. economic data that could affect the Federal Reserve's stance on monetary policy. Minutes of the Fed's June meeting reinforced expectations of future rate hikes, which led to the loss of some long positions in gold. Importantly, as U.S. interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of owning non-performing assets such as gold increases, putting downward pressure on gold prices. 

 Investors and market participants are watching for upcoming U.S. labor market data, especially wage pressures, to better understand the possible policy direction of the Federal Reserve. In addition, geopolitical factors such as China's attempts to control semiconductor exports and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's visit to Beijing are expected to play a major role in this trend. These events are likely to contribute to the short-term inflow of money into gold as a safe haven. 

 Going forward, important data such as the US ISM Services PMI, ADP employment growth in June, news from China and recession fears will play a key role. Thus, the XAU/USD pair is under pressure from various sides, including economic data, central bank policy and geopolitical events, which requires investors to be vigilant and closely monitor these factors.

Technical Analysis and Scenarios:

Given fundamental pressures such as expected interest rate hikes and geopolitical uncertainty, combined with technical indicators such as the Alligator showing a flat trend and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) being in the red zone, the main scenario suggests a bearish bias.

Main scenario (SELL)

Recommended entry level: 1893.00.

Take Profit: 1855.00.

Stop loss: 1920.00.

Alternative scenario (BUY)

Recommended entry level: 1932.00.

Take profit: 1953.00.

Stop Loss: 1920.00.