General analysis AUDUSD for 24.03.2022

Current dynamics

Strong labor market indicators in Australia and the U.S., along with growing inflationary pressures from rising energy prices are indicating potential for more aggressive actions of the regulators.
Australia's unemployment rate is at 4%, a historic low. Such low unemployment in Australia was last seen in 2008.  At the same time, in the U.S. too, unemployment is close to historical lows and stands at 3.8%. However, in Australia, if a retiree wants to get a job, they can expect to earn the minimum wage because of fiscal constraints. National Seniors Australia has proposed changing the rules to allow retirees to earn a decent wage because of the high number of job openings in Australia. Currently, only 3 percent of retirees in Australia are working.
However, the situation in the real estate sector in both countries is not so good. For example, the U.S. secondary market housing sales fell by 7.2% in February and new home sales declined by 2%. It is worth noting that throughout 2021 the mortgage market was in a downward trend, the last week was no exception: the mortgage index declined by 8.1%. At the same time, the housing price index in Australia for the 4th quarter rose by 4.7%, while experts predicted growth of only 3.9%, and rents for two years of pandemic coronavirus in small towns in Australia increased by almost 20%. The Australian Council of Social Services report shows an 18% increase in rents and a mere 6% increase in charges.
At the same time, passenger traffic in Australia is beginning to return to pre-pandemic levels. Compared to February 2019, passenger traffic in February this year decreased by 82%, but the growth of passengers arriving from other countries in the last 12 months at Sydney International Airport increased by 700% and reached 230K, domestic traffic reached 50% of pre-pandemic levels. It's worth noting that airfares are up 112% over pre-pandemic, with average airfares in Australia up 7% in the first two months of 2022 compared to prices for the same period in 2019.

Australian manufacturing PMI (57.3) and services PMI (57.9) were released this morning. Both indices rose relative to previous values. Today at 14:30 (GMT+2) will be released the weekly number of initial jobless claims and it is expected to be at 212K. Later in the day,PMIs for manufacturing and business in the U.S. are due out at 15:45 PM (GMT+2).

Support and resistance levels.

AUD/USD pair quotes are fixed above the Fibonacci 100 level. The current trend is upward. RSI oscillator rose above the 70 level and could not fix above it.

• Support levels: 0.7490, 0.7440, 0.7375, 0.7335, 0.7230, 0.7165 
• Resistance levels: 0.7550, 0.7610, 0.7660

Trading scenarios

• Long positions can be opened from the current level with targets 0.7550 or 0.7610 and stop-loss 0.7440 Implementation period: 2-4 days 
• Short positions may be opened below the level of 0.7440 with target 0.7375 and stop-loss 0.7490 Implementation period: 2-4 days