General analysis Brent for 13.04.2022

Current Dynamics

The US Department of Energy raised the forecast for oil production in the United States, at the same time the forecast for oil prices in 2022-2023 was corrected in the direction of slight decreasing of prices.

The U.S. Department of Energy raised its 2022 forecast for average U.S. oil production by 20000 bpd to 12.01 million bpd. The 2023 average production forecast was increased on 40000 bpd to 12.95 million bpd. However, despite the White House's efforts to keep oil prices down, US DOE predicts the average price of Brent will be $103.37 this year, not $105.22 as it was predicted earlier. Also, Department of Energy changed its forecast of Brent price in 2023, increasing it from $88.98 to $92.57 per barrel. WTI price forecast was decreased from $101.17 to $97.96 per barrel in 2022 and increased from $84.98 to $88.57 per barrel in 2023.

Meanwhile, Argentina's crude oil production in February 2022 rose 13.2% from February 2021, according to the Energy Institute of Argentina.

However, it is worth noting that the U.S. Energy Department forecasts oil production in Russia in the second quarter of 2022 will decline to 10.1 million bpd, which is 1.2 million bpd less than the first quarter of 2022. At the same time, according to the report US DOE, in 2023 Russia's production will average 9.8 million bpd.

The Kazakhstan Energy Minister said the repairs of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) have not yet started because of the weather conditions. Recall that in 2021 CPC shipped 1. 2 million barrels of oil per day. Due to the accident two of three remote mooring devices are not working.

Also this week Kuwait increased official selling prices of two types of crude oil for the Asian region in May. The price of Kuwait Export Crude will increase by $4.5, while Kuwait Super Light Crude will rise by $3.7.

In the backdrop of the geopolitical situation the state oil and gas company Pertamina will consider buying Russian oil.

American Petroleum Institute's data showed an increase of reserves to 7.757m while experts predicted 1.367m. The Brent crude oil price dropped slightly, in spite of such strong data. 

The Energy Information Agency (EIA) will publish data on crude oil inventories at 17:30 (GMT+2) today. Inventories are expected to rise by 0.863M.

Support and resistance levels.

Brent crude oil prices broke through the key 38.2 Fibonacci level. The RSI oscillator is in the upper part below the 70 level. 

• Support levels: 104.80,101.20,98.75, 95.40
• Resistance levels: 120.00, 114.25, 110.65, 107.65,

Trading scenarios

• Long positions can be opened from the level of 104.80 with a target of 107.65 or 110.65 and a stop loss of 102.90. Implementation period: 1-3 days
• Short positions can be opened below the level of 101.20 with a target of 95.40 and a stop loss of 102.90. Implementation period: 1-3 days