Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

XAU/USD is currently trading cautiously at a weekly high of 1934.40, while the US Dollar is weakening from a six-month high. Market attention is focused on upcoming central bank meetings, with the US Federal Reserve meeting receiving the most attention. Investors are primarily concerned about the possibility of interest rate adjustments and changes in the inflation outlook, and these two factors play a central role in determining the direction of gold. 
The recent weakening of the US dollar against other currencies has sparked renewed interest in gold among international investors. This interest is intensified by the upcoming policy decisions of the major central banks, primarily the US, UK and Japan. Against the backdrop of growing concerns about inflationary pressures and possible changes in interest rates, the attractiveness of gold is growing. The general consensus is that the US Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate policy and interest rates will be in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. However, all eyes are on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who is expected to provide more details on the inflation scenario. 
Powell is expected to focus on current inflation concerns but may advocate a more patient strategy. Global gasoline and diesel shortages pose an inflation risk that could affect gold's appeal if the Fed decides to raise interest rates more aggressively to curb inflation. 
The actions of the central banks of England and Japan are also eagerly awaited. The Bank of England appears poised to raise interest rates, while the Bank of Japan's approach remains uncertain. Sustained inflationary pressures, fueled by strong consumer activity and a tightening labor market, could force these central banks to maintain or even raise already high interest rates, reducing the prospects for a strong rally in gold prices. 
In the current environment, gold is acting as the center of attention for the global economy, and its future direction depends largely on policy decisions made at this week's central bank conferences.
Technical analysis and scenarios:

The current gold price is at 1934.20. This is slightly above the midpoint between the indicated support and resistance levels. The Alligator indicator is indicating a bullish trend, with the jaw sitting below the lips and teeth. In addition, both the Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are green, confirming bullish momentum.
Main Scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 1938.00.
Take Profit: 1946.00.
Stop loss: 1934.00.
  
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 1925.00.
Take Profit: 1915.00.
Stop-loss: 1930.00.