Fundamental analysis of AUD/USD for 15.02.2024

The AUD/USD pair has been rising over the last 24 hours, reaching 0.65000. 

The recovery was driven by lower US Treasury bond yields and higher risk appetite. On Thursday, the focus will be on the Australian employment report, which is expected to have a big impact on investor sentiment. New jobs are expected to come in at 30k, the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly from 3.9% to 4.0% and the labor force participation rate is expected to rise to 66.9%. Labor market conditions are favorable for wage growth. This is considered a very important factor. Thus, it also affects consumer spending and inflationary trends. This data, along with the expected decline in Australian consumer inflation from 4.5% to 4.3%, emphasizes the importance of domestic economic indicators in shaping the Australian dollar. 

Meanwhile, trade data and jobless claims may leave U.S. economic policy in the spotlight for investors. Initial jobless claims rose to 220k from 218k, while retail sales fell 0.1% in January. This data, along with the announcement of the manufacturing sector business activity index and comments from Fed officials including FOMC members Rafael Bostic and Christopher Waller, will show the strength of the market and the possible impact of the Australian dollar on USD/USD in the short-term direction of the currency pair. The Fed's outlook, especially voiced by officials such as Chicago Fed President Austan Goldsby, who stated that inflation will be in line with the Fed's 2% target, has raised concerns about US monetary policy expectations. Chairman Powell's refusal to cut interest rates played a big role in creating the current neutral stance, indicating the Fed's caution in dealing with economic data ahead of the March and May meetings. 

Overall, the near-term outlook for AUD/USD will depend on the interaction between Australian labor market results and US economic data, as well as the broader context of the Fed's comments and expectations for monetary policy. Economic developments in Australia and the US will play an important role in determining the nature of the currency pair as the stock market anticipates a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Technical analysis and scenarios:

The price being near the middle Bollinger Band and the horizontal orientation of the bands suggests that the AUD/USD pair is currently undergoing a period of consolidation and the price is fluctuating within a relatively wide range. The horizontal orientation of the Bollinger Bands indicates that there is no significant momentum in one direction or the other recently, but the price being in the upper range near the middle band indicates a slight bullish bias in the short term. The price position near the middle Bollinger band indicates a neutral market sentiment, but leaning towards bullish due to the proximity to the upper band. If the price maintains its position above the middle band and breaks above the resistance level at 0.65450, it could indicate a strengthening of the bullish momentum. If the price breaks above this level, it could target the next resistance levels at 0.65850 and possibly 0.66180. Given the horizontal direction of the Bollinger Bands and the current price position, there is potential for continued range trading within the bands. Traders may look for buying opportunities near support levels or selling opportunities near resistance levels within this range.

Main scenario (BUY)

Recommended entry level: 0.65450

Take Profit: 0.65850

Stop Loss: 0.65250

Alternative scenario (SELL)

Recommended entry level: 0.64550

Take Profit: 0.64150

Stop loss: 0.64700