Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair has had a rough start to the week and is trading at $1960.00. Investors are waiting for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference, which may affect gold prices. With the Fed and ECB further tightening monetary policy, market expectations of a 25 basis point Fed interest rate hike are limiting negative inflation.

In addition to changes in the metals market, there are many important developments expected this week that will affect the direction of gold. What is unusual is the strength of money yields against other major currencies as measured by the US Dollar Index. Now it is stable and near weekly highs, a strong dollar could limit gold's upward momentum.

Investors will also be paying attention to statements from central banks around the world, most notably the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan. Markets have been predicting that the Fed and the European Central Bank will raise interest rates quarterly, but future monetary policy could change expectations. If Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB Chair Christine Lagarde take a tougher stance, it could mean higher interest rates and a decline in gold's attractiveness. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan should maintain its current monetary policy.

Meanwhile, China's Politburo meeting is being scrutinized for statements of support for the economy, which could affect the gold price if it leads to a change in investor sentiment. In addition, the gold market will be influenced by supply and demand factors. Weak physical demand in India and high prices in China could affect gold prices.

Thus, this week the gold market will be influenced by many factors, such as the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, the Central Bank's interest rate decision, possible stimulus measures in China, and regional changes in demand. Together, these factors can provide investors with valuable information to make the right decisions.

Technical Analysis and Scenarios:

The XAU/USD pair is currently trading at 1960.00 with critical support levels identified at 1950.00, 1938.50 and 1915.00 and resistance levels at 2000.00, 1985.00 and 1959.50. In terms of indicators, the opening of the Alligator indicates the beginning of a downward movement, with both the Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) showing divergence, indicating uncertainty.

Main scenario (BUY)

Recommended entry level: 1969.50.

Take Profit: 1985.00.

Stop Loss: 1960.00.

Alternative scenario (SELL)

Recommended entry level: 1950.00.

Take Profit: 1938.50.

Stop loss: 1960.00.