Fundamental analysis of XAU/USD

The gold market is currently experiencing a complex interaction of various factors affecting price trends. 
For example, the decline in US Treasury bond yields and the weakening of the dollar contributed to the growth of gold prices. This movement was largely influenced by market sentiment regarding future interest rate decisions by the US Federal Reserve, which are important for the economy and market conditions in 2023. Key indicators such as 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields have declined, reflecting market expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy. These expectations are rising as investors await the release of key U.S. economic data, including fourth-quarter GDP growth and the December PCE inflation index from the Commerce Department.

These data are important for understanding the health of the economy and the impact on the Fed's interest rate policy. Meanwhile, the decline in the US Dollar Index makes gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. Nevertheless, the short-term outlook for gold looks conservative pending further specific guidance from the Fed on possible rate cuts. Current market prices indicate that expectations for a rate cut this year are very low, with the first rate cut expected in May. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan said that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a rising yen are supporting gold prices. Despite this, gold is still below the key resistance level of 2040.00, so there is no strong bullish movement. 
This dynamic is partly due to stronger US macroeconomic data and hawkish comments from Fed officials, which led to a change in expectations for further easing of the Fed's monetary policy. These factors supported the rise in US Treasury yields as losses against the US dollar were limited and non-interest bearing gold prices rose. 
In the short term, gold prices are influenced by factors such as the Richmond Manufacturing Business Activity Index, US Treasury bond yields, dollar price movements and risk perception.
Technical analysis and scenarios:

The Alligator indicator is hibernating, indicating a flat or consolidating market. However, both the Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are in the green zone, indicating potential upward momentum. If the market starts to reverse, indicated by AO and AC leaving the green zone, and price breaks below a key support level.
Main scenario (BUY)
Recommended entry level: 2040.00.
Take Profit: 2050.60.
Stop Loss: 2035.00. 
Alternative scenario (SELL)
Recommended entry level: 2020.00.
Take profit: 2012.00.
Stop loss: 2000.00.